Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 314.75pts | Returned 311.76pts | P/L -2.99pts | ROI -0.9%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00 - Brighton vs Crystal Palace
1pt Lewis Dunk to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
0.75pt Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded at 13/2 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30 - Liverpool vs Manchester City
2pts Under 3.5 cards at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
The M23 derby. While people will scoff at the fans calling it a derby, it's certainly a heated rivalry between Brighton and Crystal Palace. The last five games have brought about 28 cards (5.6 per game) with one of those clashes seeing three red cards.
Both sides come into this game desperate for a win, each winning just one of their last 10 Premier League matches, adding a bit of extra desperation to the fixture, especially with the pressure Fabian Hurzeler is coming under.
We'll focus on cards once again given the untrustworthy nature of both teams, with Thomas Bramall the man with the whistle (3.71 cards per game), and we'll start with Palace new boy JORGEN STRAND LARSEN TO BE CARDED at 13/2.
The big Norwegian has a point to prove. He moved from Wolves for a big price having been effectively dropped by Rob Edwards, with many laughing at the fee the Eagles paid for him, so he will be right up for this, and from how Oliver Glasner spoke so glowingly about him, he'll be trusted to start.
Larsen is a physical forward, averaging 1.72 fouls per 90 in his Premier League career and he has been carded six times. He'll be happy to engage a physical Brighton centre-back pairing, with both Jan Paul van Hecke and LEWIS DUNK showing real signs of frustrations of late.
Brighton's captain Dunk is 4/1 TO BE CARDED and should be backed also, with the Englishman collecting eight cards this season at a rate of 0.36 per 90.
These two should clash a fair few times in this game and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get into a scuffle, though Dunk has the added issue of Ismaila Sarr to deal with making his price even more juicy.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 15:25 (06/02/26)
Liverpool vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Don't be surprised if this becomes a damp squib. Liverpool are a team of control and are happy to take fewer risks against the best teams, I mean, just look at the two games against Arsenal (1-0, 0-0).
The away game at Manchester City came at a bad time for them and saw Pep's side blow them away with ease (3-0) but City's defensive issues are huge at the moment, meaning we could see them clamp down too.
All in all, I'm not expecting fireworks on the goal front, and given the referee appointment, I'm not expecting cards to fly either. That's because Craig Pawson is the man with the whistle, and he has been the most lenient referee in the league this season by some margin.
Pawson has averaged just 2.00 cards per game, with the next best Michael Oliver at 2.68 per game, so we have to oppose cards. The last time we saw the whistleblower was in another pretty big game as Arsenal hosted Manchester United and he brandished just two cards despite giving 20 fouls.
We can back UNDER 3.5 CARDS at 19/20 which simply has to be backed given Pawson's strike rate. This bet has won in 12 of his 13 league games this season (92%) and three of the last six head-to-heads.
This bet has landed in five of Liverpool's last seven league games and six of City's last 11 too.
For those that want to ladder, it's 11/5 for under 2.5 cards which has landed in five of Liverpool's last seven, four of City's last 11 and eight of Pawson's 13 games this season. The under 1.5 cards has banked in four of the officials' 13 this term and is 6/1, while the no card game is 20/1, and Pawson has overseen two already this term.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (06/02/26)
Already advised
Friday 20:00 - Leeds vs N Forest
1pt Ethan Ampadu to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime at 10/1 (Betway)
Saturday 12:30 - Man Utd vs Tottenham
2pts Harry Maguire to win 1+ fouls at 4/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assists at 3/1 (Boylesports)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Trai Hume to be carded in Arsenal vs Sunderland at 10/3 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Adam Smith to be carded in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa at 13/5 (BetVictor)
2pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shots on target in Burnley vs West Ham at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.75pt Summerville to score anytime at 19/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Joachim Anderson to be carded in Fulham vs Everton at 4/1 (General)
2pts Yerson Mosquera 1+ total shots in Wolves vs Chelsea at 7/5 (Betway)
1pt Mosquera to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Mosquera to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 17:30 - Newcastle vs Brentford
2.5pts Mathias Jensen 1+ total shots at 10/11 (bet365)
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
We have a tasty Friday night clash in the Premier League with Leeds taking on Nottingham Forest. This feels big in the relegation shake up with the pair level on points and six points above 18th-placed West Ham, who travel to Burnley on Saturday. It's a proper six-pointer.
I'll happily swerve the 1X2, and head to the card markets given Peter Bankes (4.2 cards per game) is overseeing proceedings, with Leeds captain ETHAN AMPADU nicely priced TO BE CARDED at 3/1.
The Welshman has seven cards to his name this season at an average of 0.34 per 90 which makes the price on offer excellent value before factoring in the magnitude of the game and the opponents he'll be facing.
Ampadu will be sandwiched between Nottingham Forest's Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White, two physical players who are excellent at drawing fouls. He committed three fouls in the reverse fixture and somehow avoided a card, but he may not be so lucky here with a card-happy ref.
We'll also back PASCAL STRUIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1, with the Dutchman knocking on the door of late. Struijk has averaged 1.04 shots and 0.11 xG per 90 this season, but has been especially dangerous at Elland Road.
He's registered at least one shot in nine of his 11 home games this season, averaging 0.14 xG per 90 in front of his own fans.
Leeds have scored the second-most goals from dead-balls this season and racked up the fourth most xG (10.59) and against a Forest side who have conceded the sixth most goals and xG from set-pieces, more recently allowing 0.53 xGA from dead-balls in their last six, Struijk could strike.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Manchester United vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Michael Carrick has the Midas Touch. Three games, three wins for Manchester United since he was appointed interim manager, and in all three games his substitutes have scored winning goals. Maybe he is a genius.
It's a rinse and repeat job for us, with BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSISTS simply must-back material at 3/1 with Boylesports. He's as short as 11/8 in places.
I won't go over old ground too much, but in short, after supplying a brace of assists last week Bruno has registered an assist in seven of his last eight games, and leads the league for assists this season with 12.
Tottenham have conceded multiple goals in four of their last five league games, so there's a great chance Fernandes gets yet another assist this weekend, especially with the firepower he has around him.
We'll also row back in on HARRY MAGUIRE TO WIN 1+ FOULS at 4/5. Maguire was fouled last week meaning this bet has been a winner in all three of his league games since returning, all in a back four.
On Saturday he will (hopefully) be up against Dominic Solanke, who along with looking extremely sharp since coming back from injury, is looking more physical than ever. In his two league starts he's committed five fouls, so like with Raul Jimenez last week, this looks like a great match-up for the selection.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Arsenal vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
For readers who digested the outright edition of this column, Arsenal's success in midweek was huge as we are on them to win the Carabao Cup at 8/1, with profit already secured on that one. They will likely follow that with a routine home win, but Sunderland's TRAI HUME looks a big price TO BE CARDED.
He's 10/3 on Saturday and that looks massive. Sam Barrott is the referee, and he's averaged 3.86 cards per game this season, but this bet is all about Hume's steep increase in fouls and cards.
Across his first 15 starts in the Premier League, Hume committed just seven fouls and collected two yellow cards at per 90 averages of 0.47 and 0.14 respectively.
In his last eight starts he's collected five cards (0.64 per 90) and committed 14 fouls (1.79 per 90), which is a remarkable upturn. On Saturday he'll be up against Leandro Trossard (1.68 fouls won per 90) and/or Gabriel Martinelli (1.55), as well as overlapping full-backs Riccardo Calafiori (0.63) and Pierro Hincapie (0.53) meaning he'll have his hands full.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Recent meetings between Bournemouth and Aston Villa have seen Unai Emery's men have the edge, winning three of an unbeaten five, but all five have been card-crazy.
The last five head-to-heads have delivered an eye-watering 36 cards at an average of 7.2 per game... This edition will be refereed by Anthony Taylor, who's love for no-card games has well and truly vanished.
Since his last no carder, Taylor has overseen 17 games and averaged 4.5 cards per game, including last weekend when showing five yellows and a red as Chelsea beat West Ham. He looks an ideal appointment for a card-laden game.
We'll back ADAM SMITH, who is 11/4 TO BE CARDED. Smith has only been booked twice this season in limited minutes, but picked up seven cards last season (0.39 per 90) and has an incredible record of getting booked against Aston Villa.
In fact, whoever has played right-back for the Cherries in the last four meetings has been carded, with Smith responsible for three of those. It makes sense really, with Bournemouth wanting to press high, it leaves a lot of space for Villa's ball carriers - mainly Morgan Rogers - to drive into and ultimately get felled.
Another trend that looks worth backing is ALEX SCOTT's recent shooting splurge, with 2+ TOTAL SHOTS dangled at an appealing 13/5. Over the season Scott has averaged 1.38 shots per 90, but recently he's delivered on this bet in four straight games, taking 14 in total.
It's resulted in him scoring twice, and against a Villa team who do concede plenty of shots (14.2 per away game), trigger-happy Scott can fire again.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Burnley vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
This is must-win for West Ham. Well, it is for both teams given Burnley's plight, starting the week 11 points from safety, so we could see an open game here with plenty of goals.
We are going to focus on Hammers winger CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE, who has been in great form of late. The Dutchman has scored in all of his last four, taking advantage of West Ham's more attack-minded approach.
He's averaged 0.30 xG per 90 in that time, highlighting that he's getting good chances, so against a poor defensive team in Burnley, we'll back him to continue his scoring run, with the 19/4 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME a very good price.
We'll also back him to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET to bigger stakes at a huge 19/20, with this bet landing in all of his last five starts. I like this bet even more as the team Summerville is playing against just so happens to be the side who have allowed the most shots (407, 17.0 per game) and shots on target (145, 6.0 per game) in the league.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Fulham vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Two sides on the fringes of the European race, Fulham and Everton square-off at Craven Cottage, and I rate both highly so will stay clear of the main markets. I'm going to test last week's Everton logic and again back the opposing right-centre-back TO BE CARDED.
It was Jean Paul van Hecke last week who managed to avoid a card despite making three fouls, and I'm hoping JOACHIM ANDERSON isn't as lucky, so we'll back him at 4/1.
The premise to the bet is that Iliman Ndiaye and Thierno Barry are almost playing as a front two, and both are handfuls, with Ndiaye in particular buzzing off the Everton left.
Anderson has five cards this season with four of those coming in his last eight, and with a fouls per 90 average of 1.07, he could add another card to his tally here, especially with Stuart Attwell (4.60 cards per game) overseeing proceedings.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Wolves vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
YERSON MOSQUERA is simply all-action. He is box-office. After this season, the Wolves defender may need to change his middle name to 'CARD-MACHINE', with the Colombian collecting nine yellows in just 13 starts at an average of 0.71 per 90... Yep, you guessed it, we are backing him TO BE CARDED yet again.
I mean, when 5/2 is being dangled, it just has to be backed. I was expecting 6/4 for this clash with Chelsea which would probably still be value. Another card will mean a two-game suspension, a threat that doesn't appear until gameweek 32, so why put that off? Get it over and done with now Yerson.
He'll be tasked with helping deal with Joao Pedro (1.82 fouls won per 90) and/or Liam Delap (1.83), as well as potentially former Wolves man Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho, Cole Palmer or Jamie Gittens, either way, it's hard to see him making it through this 90 minutes without collecting a card.
We'll also back MOSQUERA 1+ TOTAL SHOTS at 7/5, with evens (bet365) fine too. The card-machine has had a shot in five of his last six matches, taking 11 in that time, hitting the post last week.
Chelsea continue to have issues defending set-pieces, and have conceded the second-most xG in the league from dead-balls this season (12.7). What's more, since Liam Rosenior has taken over, the Blues have conceded three set-piece goals in six matches against English sides, allowing 0.65 xG per game, so this looks a prime opportunity for Mosquera to get another shot off.
At 16/1, we'll also back MOSQUERA TO SCORE ANYTIME given how close he's been coming and how many chances he's been getting. I was close to leaving it out this week, but I'd be sick if this was the week he got off the mark.
The Mosquera goal-card double is 50/1 for those who fancy a reallly big swing.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Newcastle vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
It's been a rough few weeks for Newcastle who have lost three of a winless four including back-to-back defeats in the league. To be fair to the Magpies, in that run they've played two of the top three, and the reigning Premier League and Champions League holders.
They need to pick up soon or they will be out of the European race as we turn for the home straight, and this is a massive game for Eddie Howe's men, with defeat to seventh-placed Brentford putting six points between the teams.
Injuries have hurt Newcastle, with two key midfield cogs in Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton absent during that run, and both Anthony Gordon and Lewis Miley now sidelined for this. They may have skipper Guimaraes back which would be a huge boost.
Brentford, fresh from an away win at Aston Villa, will fancy their chances, but the 10/11 about MATHIAS JENSEN 1+ TOTAL SHOT is just massive and has to be backed.
The Bees midfielder has been playing in an advanced role over his last 10 starts, and has delivered a shot in eight of those, averaging 1.61 shots per 90. A reminder that this bet lands as long as Jensen takes any sort of shot no matter where it ends up, and it's as short as 1/6 in places.
Howe's side have been shipping a lot of shots of late too, allowing 13.9 per game in their last 13 across all competitions.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 11:30 (06/02/26)
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